US NFP, Trump’s Tariffs Announcement; What’s the Potential Impact?

Key Highlights:

With the week ahead, global traders should brace for several major catalysts that could shape market movements. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and Unemployment Rate remain the top-tier highlights, providing critical insights into the US labor market and influencing Federal Reserve policy expectations. Apart from key economic data, Trump’s tariff announcement on 2nd April 2025 could further drive volatility, particularly across risk-sensitive assets and major currency pairs.

Monday, 31 March 2025 – 15:00

German CPI (MoM) (March)
Germany remains in focus following the government’s recent announcement of an aggressive €500 billion economic stimulus plan aimed at boosting growth. However, the effectiveness of such measures is still uncertain. The German CPI, an early indicator of inflation trends, will provide clues on whether this stimulus is driving price pressures. Market expectations stand at 0.40% MoM—a higher-than-expected reading may reinforce concerns over inflation, potentially strengthening the euro, while a lower print may signal weaker demand.

Tuesday, 1 April 2025 – 06:30

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has been highly sensitive to China-US trade tensions, given New Zealand’s strong trade ties with China. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) previously cut interest rates from 4.35% to 4.10% in February, but it is widely expected to hold rates steady this time as policymakers adopt a wait-and-see approach. While most analysts anticipate no change, any dovish or hawkish shift in the RBNZ’s statement could trigger volatility in NZD pairs.

Wednesday, 2 April 2025 – 15:15

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (March)
The ADP Nonfarm Employment Change report provides an early estimate of private-sector job creation and is often used as a leading indicator for the official US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). While economists’ forecasts have not yet been officially released, traders will be closely monitoring the data for signals on labor market strength. A stronger-than-expected reading could boost the US dollar and Treasury yields, while a weak print may support gold and risk assets.

Wednesday, 2 April 2025 – 17:30

Crude Oil Inventories
Crude oil prices have been on an upward trajectory, driven by supply disruption risks linked to Trump’s potential tariffs on countries purchasing Venezuelan oil. The recent sharp decline in US crude oil inventories has further supported prices. This week’s report will be closely watched for confirmation of tightening supply conditions. A significant inventory drawdown could reinforce the bullish oil trend, while an unexpected build may trigger a pullback in prices.

Friday, 4 April 2025 – 15:30

US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
The US Nonfarm Payrolls report is one of the most anticipated economic releases, offering a comprehensive view of employment trends. Market expectations currently point to an increase of 128K jobs. A better-than-expected reading could reinforce expectations of a hawkish Fed, strengthening the US dollar and pressuring gold. Conversely, a weaker-than-expected print may cut fuel rate speculation, benefiting risk assets. Traders will also pay close attention to wage growth and the unemployment rate, as these factors influence inflation expectations and Fed policy decisions.